An annual CPI change compares an index with its level in the same month a year earlier, making October 2025 the necessary starting point for October 2026. BLS could not collect that month’s survey prices during the funding lapse, which ran from October 1 to November 12, 2025, and did not issue an October 2025 CPI news release. It marks missing table entries with a dash and a funding-lapse footnote, including in its public data feeds, so an absent figure must not be treated as zero inflation. The agency later recovered most nonsurvey data and published October values for those series where possible alongside the November 2025 release.
September as The Monthly Baseline
The latest published summary, released on October 14, covers September 2026: seasonally adjusted headline CPI rose 0.6% from August, following August’s 0.4% increase. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% in each month, offering a separate baseline for judging the next release’s underlying monthly pressure. September’s annual headline and core rates were 3.7% and 2.6%, respectively, measured before seasonal adjustment; neither is an October result. BLS says its October chart package will not update because most over-year comparisons cannot be produced, and the selected-category chart still carries a September 2026 heading.
Composition Changes The Inflation Reading
September’s 9.1% monthly gasoline increase accounted for more than half of the headline CPI rise, while food prices were unchanged and shelter rose 0.4%. Cheaper fuel could reduce the overall monthly increase without producing an equivalent slowdown in the core measure, which excludes food and energy. September’s core measure included higher used-car prices, up 0.7%, and a 1.2% increase in airline fares, while communication prices declined 0.2%. When BLS combines those components, it uses spending weights, reflecting each category’s importance in the spending of the population covered by the index.
Forecasts and Statistical Approximations
FOREX.com’s November 9 preview listed annual headline and core expectations of 3.9% and 2.8%, respectively, alongside forecasts for the monthly readings. Those are estimates presented in that preview, rather than published BLS figures, as they cannot establish an official October annual result when the necessary comparison is unavailable. BLS separately approximated missing October 2025 values from the September and November indexes for its seasonal-factor calculations, which remove recurring patterns associated with holidays, production cycles and sales from monthly changes. The agency also says seasonally adjusted indexes can be revised for up to five years after their original release.
The Dollar Channel Remains Conditional
An October monthly reading above forecasts could strengthen the case for tighter Federal Reserve policy and higher US yields, potentially increasing the dollar’s relative interest-rate support. Softer pressure could work in the opposite direction, although a single month cannot establish a lasting inflation trend and currency moves also depend on developments outside the United States. An October headline increase below September’s 0.6% could still exceed expectations, because the surprise depends on the forecast benchmark rather than simply on the previous month.
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