The Dollar Fell Without a Dovish Fed Shift

The dollar declined after the US midterm elections even as reported odds of a December Federal Reserve increase rose. Reuters' November 4th New York report put the dollar index down 0.32% at 101.51 while citing CME FedWatch pricing of an 81.8% chance of a rate rise of at least 25 basis points in December. The reported Democratic victories changed the political outlook, but the currency move and the near-term interest-rate assessment were not telling the same story.