EURUSD climbs back above 1.1600, but another pullback is likely

EURUSD reached a fresh two-week high of 1.1639 before surrendering some gains. The currency pair has been consolidating sideways over the past few hours following its recent surge.

EURUSD continues its gradual rebound after it found a foothold below 1.1500 again. Despite this recovery, the rise may represent only a brief retracement within the broader medium-term downtrend. The currency pair has been consolidating sideways over the past few hours following its recent surge. On Monday, the EURUSD reached a fresh two-week high of 1.1639 before surrendering some gains.

EURUSD hardly reacted to the mixed German PMI data

The latest economic data showed Germany’s HCOB Manufacturing PMI edged up to 51.7 in March 2026 from 50.9 in February, signaling expansion. Conversely, the German Services PMI declined to 51.2 from 53.5, missing expectations of 52.5 and marking a seven-month low. PMIs are key leading indicators of economic growth, with readings above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 signaling contraction. However, the currency pair remained largely unaffected by the robust manufacturing data.

Moving ahead, very little is expected to come out from the Eurozone this week, so little volatility is expected from this data point. Nonetheless, comments from ECB policymakers, particularly ECB President Lagarde's speech on Wednesday, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions, are likely to influence EURUSD significantly.

EURUSD technical forecast: Bulls are struggling to extend momentum

Despite the pair's positive gains over the last few trading sessions, overall momentum remains mixed; the bears remain active. At the time of writing, the euro was hanging around 1.1600. According to the daily time frame chart below, if the euro's price remains below 1.1600, bears will have a better probability of continuing their downward slide. Given the high volatility, there is a potential that the currency pair will continue to drop despite buying pressure, and a test of the psychological support levels 1.1500 and 1.1480 cannot be ruled out.

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On the upside, a sustained move above 1.1600 would favor buyers, with initial resistance at 1.1640. Breaking this level could build momentum toward testing 1.1700.

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