In recent days, commodity markets have been stirred by statements from U.S. President Donald Trump, who proposed a 25% to 50% tariff on countries purchasing oil from Russia. This potential measure appears to aim at limiting Russia’s revenues. Additionally, it may be an attempt by the U.S. to exert pressure on countries maintaining strong trade relations with Moscow despite Western sanctions.

Sober expectations and rhetoric fatigue

The market’s reaction, however, was surprisingly lukewarm. Oil price activity has been relatively constrained since the end of March, reflecting a slowdown and tight rotation around the psychological level of $70. Experts and oil market traders explain this reaction as a result of “fatigue” from verbal threats and a lack of concrete actions. “Without clear implementation and concrete steps, we see no reason for an exaggerated market reaction,” said Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING Bank.

China and India

Any secondary sanctions or tariffs would only be effective if the main buyers of Russian oil – China and India – were to comply. The stance of Chinese state oil companies suggests a certain shift. Firms like Sinopec and Zhenhua Oil have reportedly suspended purchases of Russian oil, while other entities have reduced volumes and are analyzing potential risks.

Loss of trust in trump’s words

Traders in China, who spoke with Reuters on Monday, openly admit that Donald Trump’s repeated statements have lost credibility. “We’re numb. Oil prices don’t react,” said one anonymous trader. Another added, “Trump always bluffs. Without real action, nothing changes.”

What does this mean for investors?

The key question for investors remains whether the tariff threats will actually materialize into concrete measures and whether global players will abide by them. The stance of OPEC will also be crucial, in the event of reduced Russian supply, it could increase production and stabilize the market.

A recent reference point is the implementation of secondary sanctions against Venezuela, which led to the immediate suspension of purchases by Chinese firms even before the sanctions formally came into effect.

Conclusion



Although Trump’s statements are politically significant, the current market reaction shows that traders need clear evidence of implementation, not just rhetoric. For investors in the commodities sector, it will be essential to focus on facts and concrete political decisions, rather than on political headlines. The oil market undoubtedly remains sensitive to geopolitics, but it is currently driven mainly by real demand and supply and other fundamental factors, not hypothetical measures.